In the next 20 years (2015-2034), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 per cent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft above 100 seats (31,800 passengers) worth US$ 4.9 trillion. By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today’s 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types.
Emerging economies which collectively account for six billion people, are the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8 per cent per year compared to more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or North America, that are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8 per cent. Emerging economies also account for 31 per cent of worldwide private consumption which will rise to 43 per cent by 2034. Economic growth rates in emerging economies such as China, India, Middle East, Africa and Latin America will exceed the world average. A knock on effect is that middle classes will double to almost five billion people.
The tendency to travel by air is increasing. In today’s emerging economies, 25 per cent of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74 per cent by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.
“Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth. Today, we are ramping up production of the A350 XWB and we are studying further production rate increases beyond rate 50 for single aisle aircraft to meet the increasing demand for air transportation,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer, Customers, Airbus.
Long-haul traffic will increasingly be to, from or between aviation mega-cities, rising from 90 per cent (0.9 million passengers a day) today to 95 per cent (2.3 million passengers a day) by 2034. Aviation mega-cities are centres of urbanisation and wealth creation and will increase from 47 to 91 cities by 2034 with 35 per cent of World GDP centred there. These mega cities are already served well by air transportation and the existing route network will accommodate 70 per cent of all traffic growth between now and 2034.
In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft on long-haul and an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US $2.7 trillion. This represents 30 per cent of all new aircraft deliveries and 55 per cent by value. Airbus will be especially well placed to win a leading share of the widebody market, with the A330, A350 and A380 representing the most modern and comprehensive product line available today from 200 to over 500 seats.
In the single aisle market, where the A320 Family and the latest generation A320neo Family are firmly established as the global market leaders, the latest Airbus forecast sees a requirement for nearly 23,000 new aircraft worth US $2.2 trillion over the next 20 years, an increase of nearly 1,000 aircraft compared to the previous forecast, representing 70 per cent of all new units and 45 per cent of the value of all deliveries.
Globally traffic growth has led to average aircraft size ‘growing’ by 46 per cent since the 1980s with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs. Larger aircraft such as the A380, combined with higher load factors, make the most efficient use of limited slots at airports and contribute to rising passenger numbers without additional flights as confirmed by London’s Heathrow Airport. A focus on sustainable growth has enabled fuel burn and noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with innovations like the A320neo, the A330neo, the A380 and the A350 XWB.
