According to UNWTO Panel of Experts Confidence Index survey, prospects remain positive for the period May-August, the Northern Hemisphere’s summer season. Around 435 million tourists are expected to travel abroad during these four months which account for as much as 40% of all international tourist arrivals registered in a year. The pace of growth might slow somewhat, as shoulder seasons tend to show faster growth than the peak season.
International air travel reservations for May-August from business intelligence tool Forwardkeys support this outlook with a 4% increase in bookings for that period. The highest growth is recorded in international flight reservations from Africa and the Middle East (+7%) and the Americas (+5%), followed by Europe (+3%) and Asia and the Pacific (+2%).
This outlook is confirmed by the UNWTO Panel of Experts Confidence Index survey which shows sustained confidence for this period, though with variations by region and activity. Confidence picked up significantly in Europe, the Middle East, among Global operators, tour operators and travel agencies. On the other hand, confidence decreased among experts in Asia and the Pacific, the Americas and Africa, as well as among experts in the transport industry.
For the full year of 2013, international tourist arrivals are expected to increase by 3% to 4% in line with UNWTO’s long-term forecast of 3.8% per year for the period 2010 to 2020.
